Win Probabilities After Game 3

Analytic Minds

Viswanathan Anand strikes back immediately to win Game 3, which puts him back in the match. Depending on which model we use, his chances of winning increased to 20.3% using ratings only, and 31.3% using the adjusted model. So he is still very much the underdog, but has stopped the bleeding infected by Magnus Carlsen in Game 2. The probable outcomes are as follows:

Expected match win following game 3 using the ratings only model. Expected match win following game 3 using the ratings only model.

Expected match win following game 3 using the adjusted model. Expected match win following game 3 using the adjusted model.

Magnus Carlsen is still the favorite, but it seems increasingly likely that he will have to fight it out to game 11 or 12.

Rating model Adjusted model
Carlsen win 73.0% 59.2%
Anand win 13.6% 21.8%
Tie-break 13.4% 19.0%

This is similar to the probabilities after Game 1, but with a shift of 4-5 percentage points from Magnus Carlsen toward a tie…

View original post 98 more words

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s


%d bloggers like this: