Win Probabilities After Game 4

Analytic Minds

Another draw today in Game 4, which doesn’t change the overall picture much at all. Carlsen is still the favorite, at 79.2% using ratings only, and 66.0% when using the adjusted model. The probable outcomes are as follows:

Expected match win following game 4 using the ratings only model. Expected match win following game 4 using the ratings only model.

Expected match win following game 4 using the adjusted model. Expected match win following game 4 using the adjusted model.

Again, this isn’t much of a change, but makes it more and more likely that it will be decided late in the match. And for each game that Carlsen doesn’t gain an advantage, Anand’s chances improve.

Rating model Adjusted model
Carlsen win 72.2% 56.4%
Anand win 13.7% 24.3%
Tie-break 14.1% 19.3%

Tomorrow is a rest day, then it’s on again on Friday.

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