Win Probabilities After Game 6

Analytic Minds

We are now half way, and Magnus Carlsen managed to get into the lead after a win in Game 6 that was not without drama. This increased his probability of winning the match to 89.7% using the ratings only model, and to 83.6% using the adjusted model. This is similar to what it was after Carlsen’s win in Game 2, and the current match win distributions are as follows:

Expected match win following game 6 using the ratings only model. Expected match win following game 6 using the ratings only model.

Expected match win following game 6 using the adjusted model. Expected match win following game 6 using the adjusted model.

As we can see, Magnus Carlsen now has a very good grip on the game, and a lot of Vishy Anand’s chances lie in forcing a tie-break. It is now most likely that Magnus Carlsen will win the match in Game 11. Now they are half-way and Carlsen has another game with white coming up. If he can…

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