Win Probabilities After Game 10

Analytic Minds

Game 10 ended in another draw, and with only two games left we have now reached the point where we can calculate each player’s win chances instead of simulating them. Magnus Carlsen’s chances of winning the match is now 90.2% using the ratings only model and 88.2% using the adjusted model. The match win distributions are as follows:

Expected match win following game 10 using the ratings only model. Expected match win following game 10 using the ratings only model.

Expected match win following game 10 using the adjusted model. Expected match win following game 10 using the adjusted model.

For Anand to win the match outright, he has to win both of the last games, which is very unlikely. If Carlsen wins the next game he remains the champion, and he still has a good chance with a draw.

Rating model Adjusted model
Carlsen win 82.6% 78.9%
Anand win 2.3% 2.5%
Tie-break 15.1% 18.6%

Norsk forklaring av utregningene.

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