Win Chances of Grenke Chess Classic After First Round

Analytic Minds

All 4 games in the first round Grenke Chess Calssic 2015 yesterday ended in draws, which should shift the win chances a bit. We would expect that those playing with the white pieces yesterday would have their chances somewhat decreased, while those playing black saw their chances increase a bit. Having re-run the model after the first results, that is mostly what happened. The updated chances can be seen below. The original chances are outlined in blue, while the current chance with their current probability listed.

Probability distribution of win chances following the first round. Probability distribution of win chances following the first round.

The exceptions to the general rule are Levon Aronian and Magnus Carlsen. After their draw, there was no change in their win chances. This is mostly due to the fact that since Magnus Carlsen is the highest rated player, by far, he is expected to manage at least a draw even when playing black. Much like…

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